FIRE Target
$1,000,000
Required core portfolio size
FIRE Age
48.5 yrs
Expected goal crossover age
Final Portfolio
$2,450,000
At end of life expectancy
Coast Target
$312,000
Required assets to coast today
Net Worth Trajectory
Real dollar growth showing crossover point into financial independence
Survival Rate
98.2%
Percentage of successful runs
Cohorts Run
1,230 runs
Monthly rolling portfolios
Database Range
1871-2025
Robert Shiller S&P 500 records
Worst Start Year
N/A
Ended with $0
Historical Backtesting Envelopes
Stress-testing your parameters against the worst inflation and crash cycles in US history (Calculated on Stop Dragging)
MC Success Probability
95.4%
From 1,000 random market runs
Median Value (50th)
$1,850,000
Expected standard result
Worst Case (10th)
$35,000
Result under poor sequences of returns
Monte Carlo Percentile Envelopes
Asset returns modeled using a randomized Log-Normal random walk (Calculated on Stop Dragging)
Monte Carlo Simulated Runs Ledger
Audit log of all 1,000 randomized market futures
| Run ID | Ending Balance | Peak Portfolio | Years Survived | Status |
|---|
Showing 1-10 of 1000 runs
Your Retirement Timeline Targets
These milestones calculate your progress checkpoints based on your active assets and compound rates.
Age 30
Coast FIRE
You have saved enough so that your portfolio will compound to your retirement target automatically without any further savings.
$311,805
Age 44
Barista FIRE
Your portfolio size supports early retirement when combined with your selected part-time (Barista) active income.
$625,000
Age 48.5
Full FIRE Target
Your portfolio is completely self-sustaining. The standard safe withdrawal rate covers 100% of your living expenses.
$1,000,000
Year-by-Year Financial Planning Ledger
Detailed annual audit showing portfolio compounding, total contributions, active withdrawals, and milestone alerts.
Recalculating Insights...
Analyzing portfolio simulation metrics and compiling risk-mitigation data.